Supply, Reserves, and Equilibrium (superseded by automation)

Liquidity
#168

It must be possible. I will be in transit in the next 1.5 days.

#169

To trigger a buyback then a dilution, the parked nbt would need to change by 700k to force the standard to go from +2.5k to -2.5k (5k/0.05/0.15=666k). Also, the park rates go down as the standard approaches +2.5k (at least in theory), so this attacker is parking for smaller and smaller rewards. Their best attack would be to wait for Nu to suffer, then park a bunch all at once at a high rate. However, this is precisely what we want them to do! To wait and park when we’re in trouble, they have to buy a bunch of nubits while our economy is going into a recession, thereby helping us out. Well that’s not really an attacker at all!

This is basically the buy slow sell fast (bssf) attack from my perspective. There are more efficient ways of manipulating Nu, namely to target the ALPs.

#170

@mhps I now hold a total of 126.04 shareholder BTC. FLOT may request a transfer if they wish.

3 Likes
Current Liquidity
Timeline of events related to the peg break 2016
#171

v 0.8.3

Nushares buyback calculation as of Fri May 6 23:44:37 UTC 2016
blocks":863102
Total NBT = 1317832.0683

Uncirculating Nubits

Total NBT in circulation is 764908.258700 NBT.

Tier 4 Funds

Tier 4 buy side funds controlled by FLOT

bitfinex BTC mid price is 461.345 USD
btc-e PPC average price is 0.000925 BTC

Tier 4 buy side funds 178.252915 BTC, 0.000000 PPC, and $30000.000000, valued $112236.091260 (243.280173 BTC)

Of the 764908.258700 NBT in circulation, 15.00 percent (114736.238805 NBT) plus NuSafe are reserved and excluded from the share buyback calculation (313.726688 BTC).

243.280173 - 313.726688 = -70.446515 BTC in the share buyback pool.
The Standard is 5.00 percent of this, -3.5223 BTC (~ -1625.01 USD)

Buyback pool is not positive. There will be no NSR buyback or PPC reserve filling next week.

2 Likes
[Draft] Shareholder Pledge
#172

So far there is no information on the distribution of park period for the parked fund.

#173

Core bitcoin reserve contains 178.252915 BTC valued at $82,236.09

764,908.26 NBT in circulation - $30,000 in NuSafe = 734,908.26 outstanding NBT
15% of this is 110,236.24 NBT

82,236.09 - 110,236.24 = -$28,000.15
5% of this is the Standard:
-$1,400.01
As this is under $2,500 magnitude, there will be no NSR action this week

2/3 of the standard is -$933.33
As this is under $1,000 magnitude, there will be no PPC action this week.

Current Liquidity
#174

Will change to this after [Passed] Outstanding Nubits passes. currently the calculator gives a more conservative result (circulating - 15% - nusafe )

#175

Sure, it’s the same either way (no market action). I just wanted to post the example for the future. Specifically the peercoin stuff.

Besides, are we counting sharedays or not with motions? There’s no protocol change needed.

#176

@mhps as a result of these liquidity operations, I now have 26.04 shareholder BTC in my possession.

#177

This calculation is done without any change from [Passed] Standard and Core which passed in the last week. The numbers presented in this calculation will be used to discuss standard-and-core implementation.

v0.8.4

Nushares buyback calculation as of Sat May 14 00:32:12 UTC 2016
blocks":873809
Total NBT = 1317838.267

Uncirculating Nubits

Total NBT in circulation is 742015.019400 NBT.

Tier 4 Funds

Tier 4 buy side funds controlled by FLOT

bitfinex BTC mid price is 456.16 USD
btc-e PPC average price is 0.000905 BTC

Tier 4 buy side funds 131.743468 BTC, 0.000000 PPC, and $30000.000000, valued $90096.100322 (197.509866 BTC)

Of the 742015.019400 NBT in circulation, 15.00 percent (111302.252910 NBT) plus NuSafe are reserved and excluded from the share buyback calculation (309.764672 BTC).

197.509866 - 309.764672 = -112.254807 BTC in the share buyback pool.
The Standard is 5.00 percent of this, -5.6127 BTC (~ -2560.31 USD)

Buyback pool is not positive. There will be no NSR buyback or PPC reserve filling next week.

1 Like
#178

The following would be how buyback/refill calculated according to [Passed] Standard and Core Please check.

Circulating NuBits (CN) = 742015.019400 NBT
BTC target (BTCTR) = 15%
reserve target = CN x BTCTR = 111302.25291 NBT
reserve velocity (BTCV) = 5%
The standard (ST) = reserve velocity x (T4BTC - reserve target) = 0.05 x (T4BTC - 0.15 x CN)
= 0.05 x (131.743468 BTC x 456.16 USD/USNBT - 0.15 x 742015.019400 NBT)
= -2560.31

ST < -2500, sell |ST| amount ($2560.31) of NSR

T4 reserve in PPC (T4PPC) = 0
PPC target (PPCTR) = 5%
PPC velocity (PPCV) = 10%
PPC threshold (PPCTH) = $1000

auxiliary reserve flow (F) = (PPCTR / BTCTR) x (PPCV / BTCV) = (5%/15%)x(10%/5%) = 2/3

PPCTH x F = $1000 x (2/3) = $666.67

Since ST(-2560.31) < -(PPCTH x F), sell (F x ST = -1706.83) amount of PPC (oops we don’t have any PPC)

Peercoin standard (PPCST) = PPCV x (T4PPC - PPCTR x CN) = 10% x (0 - 5% x 742015.019400) = -3710.075097

PPCST is not > PPCTH($1000), there is no selling PPCST amount of PPC

[Poll] 100% Reserve Required for NuBits?
#179

Two things: firstly, the outstanding nubits motion passed and will keep us under nsr dilutions this week.

The standard is -$2560.31+(0.15×.05×30k)=-$2335.31
No dilutions will occur this week.

Secondly, you did the ppc stuff wrong. Ill explain when i have some spare time.

Crap, I messed up the motion. It’s supposed to be PPCTH/F not PPCTH*F. The idea is that you take the standard and multiply it by the flow. Then you compare that to the threshold and if it’s bigger you take that modified amount to market. As is it doesn’t really make sense.

We should be bringing $1556.87 worth of ppc to market if we had any. This is over the $1k threshold.

#180

when? in [Passed] Outstanding Nubits it still says voting. the explorer has been down.

No one checked when voting.
Will be traveling. Get back to this later.

#181

https://alix.coinerella.com/panel/#

Are you counting share days? I’m not a fan of counting SDD for motions. Anyway, alix doesnt really say if a motion has passed or not, so honestly i dunno.

Is it just me or is it a real issue that we can’t figure out if a motion has passed or not?

#182

Well, if you want to do it by RPC, you have to test a lot of rolling windows.
Or you parse the blockchain systematically for it (and note the block at which the motion passed; that can be verified by RPC easily) - I don’t have the skill to do that.
What I’m trying to say is: it’s not just you…

#183

By block 862642 both motions were passed in voting and SDD. This was on Friday May 6th over a week ago. Therefore, I will press forward my standard (-$2335.31) as the official correct one for this week.
http://blockexplorer.nu/motions/success

3 Likes
#184

Check the following -

this would be how buyback/refill calculated according to [Passed] Standard and Core

Circulating NuBits (CN) = 742015.019400 NBT
NuSafe=30000
Outstanding Nubits = CN - NuSafe = 742015.019400 - 30000 = 712015.019400 NBT
BTC target (BTCTR) = 15%
reserve target = Outstanding Nubits x BTCTR = 106802.25291 NBT
reserve velocity (BTCV) = 5%
The standard (ST) = reserve velocity x (T4BTC - reserve target) = 0.05 * (131.743468 * 456.16 - 106802.25291)
= -2335.31

ST < -2500, sell |ST| amount ($2560.31) of NSR
ST > -2500 There will be no NSR buyback.

T4 reserve in PPC (T4PPC) = 0
PPC target (PPCTR) = 5%
PPC velocity (PPCV) = 10%
PPC threshold (PPCTH) = $1000

auxiliary reserve flow (F) = (PPCTR / BTCTR) x (PPCV / BTCV) = (5%/15%)x(10%/5%) = 2/3

PPCTH / F = $1000 / (2/3) = $1500

Since ST(-2335.31) < -(PPCTH / F), sell (F x ST = -1706.83) amount of PPC (oops we don’t have any PPC)

ST x F = -2335.31 * 2/3 = -1556.87

Since (ST x F) < -PPCTH, sell -(F x ST) = -1556.87 amount of PPC next week (actually since ST < 0 so there is no selling.

Peercoin standard (PPCST) = PPCV x (T4PPC - PPCTR x CN) = 10% x (0 - 5% x 742015.019400) = -3710.075097

PPCST is not > PPCTH($1000), there is no selling PPCST amount of PPC

edited according to [Revision] Standard and Core

1 Like
#185

v0.9 implement Outstanding Nubits [Passed] Outstanding Nubits and Standard and Core [Passed] Standard and Core

Nushares buyback calculation as of Sat May 21 00:39:01 UTC 2016
blocks":884199
Total NBT = 1318251.0983

Uncirculating Nubits

Total NBT in circulation is 743972.860700 NBT.

Tier 4 Funds

Tier 4 buy side funds controlled by FLOT

bitfinex BTC mid price is 441.495 USD
btc-e PPC average price is 0.00081 BTC

Tier 4 buy side funds 131.743468 BTC, 0.000000 PPC, and $30000.000000, valued $88164.082365 (199.694407 BTC)

Of the 743972.860700 NBT in circulation, 743972.860700 - 30000.000000 = 713972.860700 NBT are outstanding.

15.00 percent of outstanding Nubits, 107095.929105 NBT (242.575633 BTC), are reserved and excluded from the share buyback calculation.

199.694407 - 242.575633 = -42.881226 BTC (88164.082365 - 107095.929105 = -18931.846740 NBT) are in the share buyback pool.
The Standard is 5.00 percent of this, -2.1441 BTC (~ -946.59 NBT)

There will be no NSR buy or sell next week.

Auxiliary reserve flow is 0.666667
PPC Standard is -3569.864304 NBT
-1500 < standard < 1500: There will be no PPC reserve buy or sell next week.

#186

Here, this is where you’re going wrong. I probably phrased the math wrong in the motion (which is probably why I made a mistake), but the words are on point. Take the standard, multiply it by the flow, and compare it to the threshold.

For last week:
PPCST = F*ST = -$1,556.87
Since PPCST < -$1,000 sell an amount of PPC worth the magnitude of PPCST ($1,556.87) using some acknowledged price feed.

For this week:
There are issues here.

You shouldn’t add the $30k from the stable reserve here, or the PPC value either, just the BTC reserves. This will drastically reduce the standard.

131.743468 BTC stand in the core reserves.
Valued at 441.495 USD, this is equivalent to 58,164.08 US-NBT.
As 107095.93 US-NBT are targeted, we stand at a 48931.85 US-NBT deficit. This is equivalent to ~2446.59 US-NBT below standard.

ST = -$2446.59
F x ST = -$1631.06
Sell $1631.06 PPC

#187

Please fix any mistake and ambiguity in the standard and core motion. I don;t feel comfortable following fixes in follow-up of follow-up posts. I suggest using strike through instead of deleting when editing. No need to revote. I often have a hard time parsing what you say so please make sure the math shown is correct, or interpreting and maintaining of the calculator would be difficult. Nothing personal here. For example didn’t you say

then why the quoted expression at the top of the post wrong?

Here

I think I will follow the motion

The current implementation is based on formulae in Supply, Reserves, and Equilibrium please use/revise based on it.