Supply, Reserves, and Equilibrium (superseded by automation)

It would be good to have a formal approval for that by seeing this motion [Voting] T4 buy side / BTC - maintaining and refilling value pass 50% or even better this motion: [Passed] Standard and Core

If the situation gets dire, the FLOT NSR team can inititate the sale of NSR to replenish the dynamic reserves.

Why are shareholders not voting for park rates?

Maybe they prefer a permanent removal of NBT (by NSR sale) to a temporary removal of NBT (by offering park rates)?

Why? Is there some reason nbt demand has lowered and will not increase again in the short term? Btc is going up. We just need to cover the demand recession while the price changes, then we get our dues again when the price crashes again. In the mean time, just set a few park rates so we dont get slaughtered on the nsr market.

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There’s NBT from the Nu and BCE development funds continuously entering the market, going from “frozen” circulating NBT to “really” circulating NBT.
So I don’t think it’s primarily a demand recession, but rather a supply increase - unless BCE trading starts and people need NBT to trade fiat like there.
If you have a look at the protocol upgrade, which is a prerequisite for that, you might not bet on a very near support by BCE.

And I wouldn’t bet on BTC price, even though that’s an option with the coinbase reward halving coming closer. If the BTC price doesn’t rise sharply, it can get very ugly (after the mining data centre operators ran dry with supporting purchases to keep the system running).
If I were a speculator, I’d bet on a short term increase of BTC price - but what do I know?

Oh, I know that NSR sale can remove NBT permanently from market. This decision doesn’t depend on speculation of any kind :wink:

There’s some demand on the NSR market. Nu doesn’t necessarily get slaughtered there:

If we think this recession is long term we should end NuSafe. That would increase the standard by $1,500.

It’s time to start voting for the standard.
We need a comprehensive liquidity management framework.
Dealing with liquidity without it is becoming more demanding than we can handle.
Thank you so much for your efforts in creating motions to improve this by far!

I really want to deal with the Outstanding thing first. The standard is just wordplay, Nu health exists whether we define it strictly or not. Nu health is low right now. If we think this is indicative of something deeper, we should sell our stable reserves and prepare for a storm. If we think it is just a swing, we should implement park rates. Selling NSR is not our best option right now in my opinion, though it is for sure an option. As is devaluing NBT or spiking fees to dollars on the transaction.

The standard is more than just a wordplay!
Don’t hide your light under a bushel!
It’s the most comprehensive framework for assessing the network and to trigger actions!

You remember this?

That was an attempt from an economical not very educated person like me, but your draft is much more concisely!

I don’t see a storm coming, but if you can agree with my assumption that more and more NBT from development funds enter the market (together with the still much too expensive NBT grants for liquidity!) the increased supply needs to be handled.
If if can’t be handled by genuine demand, artificial demand by offering park rates is for sure an option.
Alas, I can’t foresee the future.
My approach would be selling NSR before the trust in Nu is undermined and they can only be sold at worse rates.
You know that this is my stance ever since I started dealing with liquidity (at least for the most time): sell NSR early.

As there’s good arguments for park rates and for NSR sale and for both choices you can’t foresee the consequences, it boild down to a kind of religious thing.
To really calculate it, you’d need pieces of information now that will only be available in the future.

If the reserves are getting lower, I’ll start a discussion regarding NSR sale from FLOT NSR reserve, because doing nothing (NSR holders not even voting for park rates) would be the worst option.

For the record, if park rates kick in for 30 days we are forced to do an nsr sale by motion. I would guess that flot signers would respond to the letter of the nsr sale motion with consensus.

Right, but what if NSR holders don’t vote for park rates and the reserves go down further?

Sure, I totally agree the current model has a rather large gap. However, shareholders would be stupid to allow that to happen. Hear that? Stupid to avoid using the park rate and nsr sale mechanisms we currently have! If FLOT BTC reserve comes up dry we will lose all confidence at this point. Hell, i would lose confidence.

If we’re in trouble, we still have NuSafe. We have some time yet before the apocalypse for sure.

And next to the remaining BTC reserves we have NuSafe, right, and we have the FLOT NSR team holding 25,000,000 NSR.
There’s a lot of buffer left, before the first NSR need to be granted by NSR holders.

This week’s caculation results

Nushares buyback calculation as of Sat Apr 16 10:09:00 UTC 2016
"blocks" : 833609,
Total NBT = 1290846.4629

FSRT multisig
Balance of BhCnQrYrA5LZm871dtMQEXeU93gmqbhdrC is 0 NBT
FSRT singlesig
Balance of BFTnCyMX1nsTNp6X7Bcm1qVocvShdbwtMi is 151500 NBT
JordanLee singlesig
Balance of B5Zi5XJ1sgS6mWGu7bWJqGVnuXwiMXi7qj is 150000 NBT
JordanLee singlesig from liquidity ops
Balance of BT9AWq9r1i6kghZc6LtrvNb2wRFh7JLCdP is 36553.054 NBT
FLOT 3-of-5 multisig
Balance of BqyRzFtWXDmjxrYpyJD42MLE5xc8FrB4js is 154465.5226 NBT

Total NBT in circulation is 798327.886300 NBT.

Tier 4 Funds

Tier 4 buy side funds controlled by FLOT
FLOT 5-of-8 multisig old
Balance of 3QDWJ2yqJ5iTUg6cSpAwxx95ba3NG97hzG is 0 BTC
FLOT 5-of-8 multisig new
Balance of 3HikFkS2Zinab1TJq7dqp6wSPyLu7i7bhe is 130.67317541 BTC
Tier 4 buy side funds controlled by JordanLee 59.8 BTC
NuSafe has $30000 for T4, but not included for buyback calculation.
FLOT 3-of-5 multisig Peercoin
Balance of pM68K72BBa2KX7Kj2qY5jgTB3AmCUKFQmV is 0.89 PPC

bitfinex BTC mid price is 434.52 USD
btc-e PPC average price is 0.00102 BTC

Tier 4 buy side funds total 190.473175 BTC, 0.890000 PPC, and $30000.000000, valued $112764.798636 (259.515784 BTC)

Of the 798327.886300 NBT in circulation, 15.00 percent (119749.182945 NBT) plus NuSafe are reserved and excluded from the share buyback calculation (344.631278 BTC).

259.515784 - 344.631278 = -85.115494 BTC in the share buyback pool.
The Standard is 5.00 percent of this, -4.2558 BTC (~ -1849.22 USD)

Pool is not positive. There will be no NSR buyback or PPC reserve filling next week.


Nushares buyback calculation as of Fri Apr 22 23:50:26 UTC 2016
Total NBT = 1292031.8213

Uncirculating Nubits

Total NBT in circulation is 758961.971700 NBT.

Tier 4 Funds

bitfinex BTC mid price is 447.785 USD
btc-e PPC average price is 0.00094 BTC

Tier 4 buy side funds total 73.002375 BTC, 0.890000 PPC, and $30000.000000, valued $62689.743290 (139.999650 BTC)

Of the 758961.971700 NBT in circulation, 15.00 percent (113844.295755 NBT) plus NuSafe are reserved and excluded from the share buyback calculation (321.235182 BTC).

139.999650 - 321.235182 = -181.235531 BTC in the share buyback pool.
The Standard is 5.00 percent of this, -9.0618 BTC (~ -4057.73 USD)

Buyback pool is not positive. There will be no NSR buyback or PPC reserve filling next week.

Totalparked nubits should be excluded in nubits in circulation for NSr buyback calculation.

What do people think?

Yes, i guess i thought they were already taken out of the getinfo reply, but i suppose they arent. So yah, i think parked should be excluded. We could try to exclude only those nbt that will not be unparked during the coming week, but that may be tough to calculate.

The point of parking NBT is removing them from circulation - if only temporarily.
I see some potential problems with a vast amount of NBT being parked (can you park at 0%?), which could in edge cases lead to NSR buybacks, because the amount of circulating NBT is reduced big time.
It’s quite hypothetical, but not impossible and maybe a vector to game the system.
I have no simple answer to this question.
Even parked NBT are a (future) liability for Nu. Maybe they should no be excluded from the NBT in circulation…

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money supply the week before was 1290846.4629
money supply last week was 1292031.8213
currently it is 1297114.8532

The couple of k nbt are grants. The $60k+ parked are not counted in.

We are calculating buyback for the next week. ideally the calculator should ignore the nubits to be unparked next week. but currently assuming all will still be parked is more accurate.

All I’m saying is that this can lead to oscillating effects, if very big amounts of NBT are parked with a buyback one week and a sale the other week (after the NBT unparked) - once this motion passes: [Passed] Standard and Core

After thinking twice I’m inclined to ignore the parked NBT and consider them as “in circulation” although they temporarily aren’t.
Parking is dealing with a short term lack of demand for NBT. That should never be able to lead to a NSR buyback, because those NBT are removed from the calculation for a short period of time.