Wall Observer - NuShares price movement tracking & discussion

[nikolaso]

That is most possible reason for dumping, no short profit from buyback

[masterOfDisaster]

I think so, too.
Maybe somebody speculated on rising NSR price due to buybacks and now wants to get rid of them being aware that it might take some time until they continue.

[Nagalim]

I cant help but doubt that. Today’s volume rivals volumes we had a year ago.

[masterOfDisaster]

What in particular do you doubt?

[Nagalim]

That the seller bought during buybacks. The volume points to a year or more ago. Like IPO or something. Anyway, all speculation.

[JordanLee]

I would just like to point out that despite the panic sell (which has the appearance of being a single seller), the most important metric for the success of NuBits is the growth or contraction of the number of NuBits in circulation. At the moment, the total number of NuBits in circulation is at an all time high at 805,282. If you look back through the buyback calculation thread you will see on February 6th the circulating supply was reported to be 810,143. However, after February 6th the method of calculation was corrected (this was discussed in the calculation thread) to exclude funds at BT9AWq9r1i6kghZc6LtrvNb2wRFh7JLCdP. That address had 20,547 USNBT in it on February 6th, so a corrected and revised total supply for February 6th would be 789,596.

This means total USNBT in circulation has risen 1.99% since February 6th. This is still an annualised rate of 13.97%. And these are the bad times. While I don’t have specific dates and numbers in front of me, I recall that our total supply was no more than 350,000 about a year ago. So over the last year the number of circulating NuBits has more than doubled.

We need to continue focusing on increasing demand for NuBits, but our growth has been quite robust and the number of NuBits in circulation is currently at an all time high.

[masterOfDisaster]

Regarding increased amount of US-NBT in circulation: a lot of demand for US-NBT was created by the funding of B$C Exchange, right?
I mean, BKS buyers either paid with NBT or BTC, which then were traded for NBT.
Sooner or later some of those NBT that are in circulation, but currently in “development reserve” of B&C Exchange will hit the market, because devs will get paid with them, etc. and the US-NBT will be converted to USD, BTC, whatever.
It would be great to create even more demand for US-NBT by a working B&C Exchange, soon (to create a counterbalance for the declining demand by releasing B&C Exchange US-NBT funds)

[JordanLee]

reserve" of B&C Exchange will hit the market

Indeed. This has been the plan for nearly a year. The prospect of B&C Exchange NuBits being sold in the open market was an even bigger concern six months ago. What actually happened was there were significant share buybacks. Sale of B&C Exchange NuBits is one variable among many that will have an impact on the total number of NuBits in circulation. There are 165,700 USNBT held in the B&C Exchange development fund. Some contractors are getting paid in BlockShares, so that figure should not be confused with the size of the B&C Development fund, which is about $205,000.

One thing we have learned in the last few months is an asset that is guaranteed to not increase in value such as NuBits does not do well in a blockchain asset bull market. That shouldn’t be a surprise. We did remarkably well when Bitcoin was plummeting in January 2015. That is cold comfort when most blockchain assets are rising in value while NuShares are not. But lets keep in mind that the pattern we are seeing is confirming the previously discussed hypothesis that NuShares will tend to benefit from a blockchain asset bear market while remaining relatively inactive during a bull market. But we don’t only want a bear market. We want a bear market that starts from very high valuations. In other words, NuShare holders want a sharp and strong blockchain asset bull market first, followed by a bear market. The bull market isn’t much fun for us, but it positions us for what we do want: a blockchain asset bear market that starts from very high valuations.

[Sentinelrv]

It would be great to create even more demand for US-NBT by a working B&C Exchange

I said it in Peercointalk chat, but one of the biggest reasons why B&C could be such a boon to our network is because we will no longer be competing against USD. On centralized exchanges NuBits are competing with people trading Bitcoin with real USD. It may be less risky in people’s minds to use USD, rather than a pegged currency like NuBits, which could possibly fail. USD can’t exist on decentralized exchanges though, so NuBits will have no competition on B&C.

I think the security of a decentralized exchange like B&C will likely have a bigger draw than the risk of using NuBits to trade. If people want the security of B&C, then they’ll be forced into relying on NuBits as synthetic USD. NuBits could potentially become the USD of decentralized exchanges as long as B&C is successful. If Nu can handle the pressure of this new demand well, it will raise the confidence level people have in our peg and we could possibly see more support and use of NuBits outside of decentralized exchanges.

But for all of this to happen, we must create a situation where people need to rely solely on NuBits as synthetic USD, and that’s what B&C gives us. It will give the Nu Network an opportunity to shine.

[Cybnate]

we must create a situation where people need to rely solely on NuBits as synthetic USD, and that’s what B&C gives us.

That assumes no competition. We shouldn’t be leaning backward and be ready for competition from Tether, Dai and possibly even BITUSD. B&C ignoring them might not be in the best interest of B&C shareholders. NuBits will have to compete in the market and need to ensure that it is seen as a solid, trusted and competitive product.

[Nagalim]

Tether can’t happen on B&C cause of kyc. BitUSD would not be worth the signers, it’s a dead project. Dai doesnt exist yet. So yah, nbt is looking pretty good.

[masterOfDisaster]

Tether can’t happen on B&C cause of kyc.

If there are signers willing to do all the KYC/AML stuff, well…
In the end Tether isn’t feasible…

BitUSD would not be worth the signers, it’s a dead project.

bitUSD has no volume, but at least the price is somewhat closer to 1 USD than before.
What would happen with more trading volume?
Do you come to the conclusion it’s dead, because of the volume?

[Nagalim]

have you been watching BitUSD on polo? The CMC value is distorted by their internal exchange, which is basically just pseudo-trading bitshares. If you quickly buy and sell just 50 BitUSD on polo right now you’d take a 10% loss. I just can’t imagine paying signers to support an unused BitUSD market when there are so many other good cryptos out there to support.

Then again, maybe it wouldn’t cost much to add BitUSD if we already have BTS. I don’t really know exactly how that works, are all the txns recorded on the same blockchain?

Tether i suppose is possible, but every tether signer would need KYC/AML and we’d have to figure out their multisig stuff, which I haven’t had much luck doing. Their support staff isn’t very responsive.

[masterOfDisaster]

Thank you for sharing your experience and your observations!

I had just a look at CMC and there the bitUSD rate looked quite close to $1, albeit with almost no volume.

And regarding Tether: customers would need to be KYC/AML compliant as well or would that only be necessary, if they want to cash out Tether for USD?

In the end your assessment seems to be valid: US-NBT is the best choice for synthetic USD at B&C Exchange at the moment.

[Nagalim]

The CMC value is distorted [for BitUSD]

A customer of B&C must have some way to deposit/withdraw tether. To have your own USDT address requires KYC/AML. I’m not sure if you can use your poloniex account as the tether address for B&C, but even there you’ll need to do KYC/AML with poloniex. However, I’ve heard that poloniex has much better support than tether, and I’m sure there are more people that have gone through the KYC/AML stuff with polo than tether, so if you can just use your polo USDT address to deposit and withdraw to B&C then the customer side might not be so bad.

[crypto_coiner]

If there are signers willing to do all the KYC/AML stuff, well…

I like this idea

[mhps]

Just above 600 satoshis.
Don’t we wish we had the buyback money now?

[Cybnate]

Don’t we wish we had the buyback money now?

Maybe we can sell a few shares

[crypto_coiner]

Now plunging and hovering around 560satoshis

[Sentinelrv]

Now plunging and hovering around 560satoshis

Maybe some people are spooked because park rates were activated, not realizing that Nu is designed to be able to go through different cycles of demand, both high and low. This is normal behavior and nothing to worry about.

Or people are trying to get into Bitcoin because of the price spike.