Referring to the example of a rolling windows of 2,000 blocks that means, one can tune the UTXO to be split into lots of 50,000 NSR to five-fold the chance to successfully mint blocks (compared to those who mint with UTXOs of 10,000 NSR, which is the optimum for maximizing the average ratio of minted blocks).
This adjustment of increasing the UTXO size decreases the amount of NSR that can be gathered as rewards over time (because it’s a static per block reward).
But with that approach one can (without increasing the total amount of NSR!) increase the chance to successfully game the reduced rolling window by waiting until all (sized 50,000 NSR) UTXOs have gathered enough days to mint before starting to vote for a motion.
While reducing the average ratio of minted blocks, the probability of minting in a given rolling window can be maximized by increasing the UTXO size.
The ideal amount of NSR per UTXO depends on the total amount of NSR and the size of the rolling window. If the UTXO size is too big, there might be not enough UTXOs to get >50% of the blocks in the rolling window.
I’m currently not able to express this mathematically, but I’ll think about a notation.
I hope that even without providing a formula, it’s become clear what I’m talking about.