I did a simple calculation to compare one output of 50,000 with five outputs of 10,000.
I agree that due to the very low chance of finding a block of both an output of 50,000 as well as an output of 10,000 the chance to find (at least) one block is practically equal.
I don’t have the numbers to make a precise calculation, but assuming that roughly 600,000,000 NSR mint, there are give or take 60,000 outputs of 10,000 NSR or 12,000 outputs of 50,000 NSR.
Assuming further that the chance to successfully mint of is equally distributed between the outputs (which is not necessarily true), the chance for the outputs of 10,000 is 1/60,000 or roughly 1.610⁻⁵ while the chance for an output of 50,000 is roughly 810⁻⁵.
Calculating complementary events to determine the chance for finding at least one block, the result for the outputs of 10,000 and 50,000 is more or less the same.
The chance not to mint a single block with 5 times 10,000 NSR is (1 - (1.6 * 10⁻⁵))⁵ = 0.99992
The chance not to mint a single block with 1 times 50,000 NSR is 1 - 8 * 10⁻⁵ = 0.99992
The chance to mint at least one block with either 5 times 10,000 NSR or 1 times 50,000 is the same: 8*10⁻⁵ or 0.00008
Admittedly you can only mint one block with a single output of 50,000 NSR.
But for comparing the two output sizes the question needed to be “what’s the chance to mint at least one block”.
That renders the attack scenario (I had sketched) unfeasible in my eyes.
Taking into regard that this reduced rolling window size gets only reduced for motions and not for grants, I’m in favor of this motion.
Based on @JordanLee’s last post and my calculation I come to the conclusion:
The agility with that motions can pass is not aligned with security drawbacks unless somebody else can think of feasible ways to game the reduced window size.
The benefit doesn’t need to get paid for with drawbacks.
It might look different, if the rate of minting NSR were comparably low.
But I don’t see a low minting rate coming as only minting secures the block chain and provides the means of voting which I assume to be the main reasons why NSR holders mint.