I’m very pleased to see the levels of decentralised liquidity higher than they have ever been before. Besides strengthening the peg, sufficient liquidity will give us the option to support a second currency.
There are a number of factors to be considered when choosing whether to support a second currency and choosing which currency it should be. Among these are the cost and feasibility of providing additional liquidity and the level of demand for the currency in question.
The most promising candidates are currencies pegged to the Chinese Yuan, the Euro and an inflation adjusted currency that maintains its purchasing power. I hope we will support all of these currencies eventually, but we will need to choose just one initially.
My thoughts are that 50,000 NBT additional total liquidity may be acceptable (in addition to the 100,000 I would like to see in our current situation). How much liquidity is allocated to each currency could be targeted based on the relative level of use of each currency. Ample sell side liquidity can always be made available in each currency. The more important issue is buy side liquidity. Where buy side liquidity is currently provided mostly as BTC, it can be switched between two supported currencies as needed. For this reason, we require considerably less than twice as much liquidity to support two currencies as opposed to one.
When considering which additional currency is supported first, I have observed that there are more Europeans than Chinese involved in Nu. However, I doubt that means a Euro pegged currency would be experience more demand than a Yuan pegged currency. Because an important early use of our currencies will be as a cash position for active traders, I think the trade volumes by currency as reported on coinmarketcap.com are important. Coinmarketcap excludes the CNY pairs from their sorted list of markets because none of them have trading fees. This is an indication there is an opinion held by some that this volume is not as meaningful as volume on exchanges with fees. My guess is that we will see less Nu currency held for each dollar of trading volume on zero fee markets than we will for each dollar of trading volume on markets with fees. Even so, the difference in Bitcoin trading volume between the Euro and Yuan is huge. At the present moment, 24 hour trading volume in CNY appears to be in the neighbourhood of 40 times as great as the volume in EUR. As a result, I’m inclined to support adding a CNY pegged currency before a EUR pegged currency.
This leaves the question of supporting an inflation adjusted currency. Perhaps the most practical way to do this would be to introduce the currency at US dollar parity. Then watch for the monthly Consumer Price Index figures provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the United States. On a specific day of the month, the monthly change reported alters the level of the peg. Inflation revisions would need to be included as well. If the price level rises 0.1% in the course of the month then the peg is raised 0.1%, such as from 1 to 1.001 USD. There are many, especially in the broader Bitcoin community, who understand the erosion of buying power of central bank money to be unethical and immoral. This currency would appeal to them. Under the assumption that inflation is more common than deflation, it may also provide users with better purchasing power. I suspect news of Nu issuing an inflation adjusted currency would bring more positive media attention to us initially than issuing a CNY pegged currency. However, my guess is that use of an inflation adjusted currency will be less than a CNY pegged currency at first. Conversely, it possible that an inflation adjusted currency will become the most popular currency we support over the long term. My guess it will take years to acquire that top spot, however.
I am quite curious to see what others will say about the choices we face regarding supporting additional currencies and I am sure important factors will be raised that I haven’t considered yet. So, what does everyone think about these questions:
- Should we support additional currencies?
- Which one should we add first?
- How much liquidity will be needed and it is feasible to acquire it at a cost that makes business sense?