The standard is more than just a wordplay!
Don’t hide your light under a bushel!
It’s the most comprehensive framework for assessing the network and to trigger actions!
You remember this?
That was an attempt from an economical not very educated person like me, but your draft is much more concisely!
I don’t see a storm coming, but if you can agree with my assumption that more and more NBT from development funds enter the market (together with the still much too expensive NBT grants for liquidity!) the increased supply needs to be handled.
If if can’t be handled by genuine demand, artificial demand by offering park rates is for sure an option.
Alas, I can’t foresee the future.
My approach would be selling NSR before the trust in Nu is undermined and they can only be sold at worse rates.
You know that this is my stance ever since I started dealing with liquidity (at least for the most time): sell NSR early.
As there’s good arguments for park rates and for NSR sale and for both choices you can’t foresee the consequences, it boild down to a kind of religious thing.
To really calculate it, you’d need pieces of information now that will only be available in the future.
If the reserves are getting lower, I’ll start a discussion regarding NSR sale from FLOT NSR reserve, because doing nothing (NSR holders not even voting for park rates) would be the worst option.
For the record, if park rates kick in for 30 days we are forced to do an nsr sale by motion. I would guess that flot signers would respond to the letter of the nsr sale motion with consensus.
Sure, I totally agree the current model has a rather large gap. However, shareholders would be stupid to allow that to happen. Hear that? Stupid to avoid using the park rate and nsr sale mechanisms we currently have! If FLOT BTC reserve comes up dry we will lose all confidence at this point. Hell, i would lose confidence.
If we’re in trouble, we still have NuSafe. We have some time yet before the apocalypse for sure.
And next to the remaining BTC reserves we have NuSafe, right, and we have the FLOT NSR team holding 25,000,000 NSR.
There’s a lot of buffer left, before the first NSR need to be granted by NSR holders.
bitfinex BTC mid price is 434.52 USD
btc-e PPC average price is 0.00102 BTC
Tier 4 buy side funds total 190.473175 BTC, 0.890000 PPC, and $30000.000000, valued $112764.798636 (259.515784 BTC)
Of the 798327.886300 NBT in circulation, 15.00 percent (119749.182945 NBT) plus NuSafe are reserved and excluded from the share buyback calculation (344.631278 BTC).
259.515784 - 344.631278 = -85.115494 BTC in the share buyback pool.
The Standard is 5.00 percent of this, -4.2558 BTC (~ -1849.22 USD)
Pool is not positive. There will be no NSR buyback or PPC reserve filling next week.
bitfinex BTC mid price is 447.785 USD
btc-e PPC average price is 0.00094 BTC
Tier 4 buy side funds total 73.002375 BTC, 0.890000 PPC, and $30000.000000, valued $62689.743290 (139.999650 BTC)
Of the 758961.971700 NBT in circulation, 15.00 percent (113844.295755 NBT) plus NuSafe are reserved and excluded from the share buyback calculation (321.235182 BTC).
139.999650 - 321.235182 = -181.235531 BTC in the share buyback pool.
The Standard is 5.00 percent of this, -9.0618 BTC (~ -4057.73 USD)
Buyback pool is not positive. There will be no NSR buyback or PPC reserve filling next week.
Yes, i guess i thought they were already taken out of the getinfo reply, but i suppose they arent. So yah, i think parked should be excluded. We could try to exclude only those nbt that will not be unparked during the coming week, but that may be tough to calculate.
The point of parking NBT is removing them from circulation - if only temporarily.
I see some potential problems with a vast amount of NBT being parked (can you park at 0%?), which could in edge cases lead to NSR buybacks, because the amount of circulating NBT is reduced big time.
It’s quite hypothetical, but not impossible and maybe a vector to game the system.
I have no simple answer to this question.
Even parked NBT are a (future) liability for Nu. Maybe they should no be excluded from the NBT in circulation…
money supply the week before was 1290846.4629
money supply last week was 1292031.8213
currently it is 1297114.8532
The couple of k nbt are grants. The $60k+ parked are not counted in.
We are calculating buyback for the next week. ideally the calculator should ignore the nubits to be unparked next week. but currently assuming all will still be parked is more accurate.
All I’m saying is that this can lead to oscillating effects, if very big amounts of NBT are parked with a buyback one week and a sale the other week (after the NBT unparked) - once this motion passes: [Passed] Standard and Core
After thinking twice I’m inclined to ignore the parked NBT and consider them as “in circulation” although they temporarily aren’t.
Parking is dealing with a short term lack of demand for NBT. That should never be able to lead to a NSR buyback, because those NBT are removed from the calculation for a short period of time.
I agree with you. I do not think that parked nubits should be regarded as a real supply decrease for very short periods. But we could remove from circulation say half of the total supply (350000) for 1y at 0.1% interest rate. Then we would really need to issue new nubits which would lead to plenty of buy backs. Also, that would trigger buyback immediately.
And overall that would be sensible.
bitfinex BTC mid price is 454.985 USD
btc-e PPC average price is 0.000985 BTC
Tier 4 buy side funds total 101.082715 BTC, 0.000000 PPC, and $30000.000000, valued $75991.119271 (167.018955 BTC)
Of the 739190.813600 NBT in circulation, 15.00 percent (110878.622040 NBT) plus NuSafe are reserved and excluded from the share buyback calculation (309.633553 BTC).
167.018955 - 309.633553 = -142.614598 BTC in the share buyback pool.
The Standard is 5.00 percent of this, -7.1307 BTC (~ -3244.38 USD)
Buyback pool is not positive. There will be no NSR buyback or PPC reserve filling next week.
To trigger a buyback then a dilution, the parked nbt would need to change by 700k to force the standard to go from +2.5k to -2.5k (5k/0.05/0.15=666k). Also, the park rates go down as the standard approaches +2.5k (at least in theory), so this attacker is parking for smaller and smaller rewards. Their best attack would be to wait for Nu to suffer, then park a bunch all at once at a high rate. However, this is precisely what we want them to do! To wait and park when we’re in trouble, they have to buy a bunch of nubits while our economy is going into a recession, thereby helping us out. Well that’s not really an attacker at all!
This is basically the buy slow sell fast (bssf) attack from my perspective. There are more efficient ways of manipulating Nu, namely to target the ALPs.
bitfinex BTC mid price is 461.345 USD
btc-e PPC average price is 0.000925 BTC
Tier 4 buy side funds 178.252915 BTC, 0.000000 PPC, and $30000.000000, valued $112236.091260 (243.280173 BTC)
Of the 764908.258700 NBT in circulation, 15.00 percent (114736.238805 NBT) plus NuSafe are reserved and excluded from the share buyback calculation (313.726688 BTC).
243.280173 - 313.726688 = -70.446515 BTC in the share buyback pool.
The Standard is 5.00 percent of this, -3.5223 BTC (~ -1625.01 USD)
Buyback pool is not positive. There will be no NSR buyback or PPC reserve filling next week.