I have recently noticed a curious and important feature of our network. It is occurring to others independently as well. In the last day, @woodstockmerkle has alluded to what I am going to detail.
The paradox is that the less confidence there is that the peg will return, the easier it becomes to actually restore it.
Consider what happens if nearly everyone loses hope of restoring the peg in any sense and the market NBT price drops to $0.01. Now the entire NBT money supply can be purchased for $8,000. Let’s suppose some one does that, and they end up owning all or nearly all NBT. Now they can easily restore the peg with full reserve.
They just fire up NuBot and put walls up at $1.00 again. Surprised at the sudden resurgence of the peg, interest in NuShares increases and reserves are built up even as the speculator who purchased the entire money supply for $8,000 reaps huge profits from having successfully revalued his portfolio of NuBits from $0.01 to $1.00. He would also be able to reap huge profits on NuShares he quietly purchased before surprising the world with a return of the peg. Lessons were learned from the first attempt. NuBits are ready for a second try after increasing reserves and centralizing liquidity operations.
The peg failure has damaged our brand. However, it is apparant we are a decentralized group of people behaving transparently. The process of losing the peg was transparent. The problems and solutions are all transparent. The world still needs stable crypto. We ought to learn that Tether has enjoyed more success than us due to their higher reserve (which is now a fractional reserve according to their website) and centralized liquidity operations (on a USD pair, not a BTC pair, in their case).
The bottom line is that Nu doesn’t die until everyone is apathetic about it. We don’t see apathy on this forum. We see dedicated shareholders and probable competitors who come here to hate on us. Neither is apathy. We can see that the peg is likely to return at some point, because as consensus forms around the improbability of the peg returning, it actually becomes much easier to restore. If anyone cares about the peg, it will return to $1.00 eventually. It is a fair question whether anyone will care if we return the peg to $1.00. The longer we wait, the fewer people will care. We ought to endeavor to do our best to restore the peg. Time is on our side in many ways. We have earned our place as the premier decentralized stable crypto project. You haven’t failed until you stop trying. Let’s keep trying. While our share price has taken a beating, it may be that all we need to turn things around is the natural and inevitable shift that occurs in the mood and sentiment of investors.
Remember, the lower the NBT price, the easier it is to buy it all up and restore the peg fully. The task never becomes insurmountable, regardless of the NuShare price and the level of interest in the project.
I predict we will see a $1.00 peg on NuBits again.
