Here some statistics regarding the voting with different stages of non-participation to discard votes. The aim of this analysis is to simulate the situation where we have an explicit NO vote by using the existing data.
Let’s first consider the NBT/PPC motion. In the following graphs the red curve shows the voting based on CDD and the blue curve shows voting based on count. The x-axis is the block number and the y-axis corresponds to the percentage of the vote. Labels with black arrows show the block where a motion (indicated by 5 letter prefix) was granted, labels with blue arrows show newly created motions. The data was sampled at block 215104.
Its interesting that this motion almost passed around block 115000. We also clearly see that the count model is much more stable than the CDD model, which is why it makes sense to abandon it. The massive NSR selloff around block 190k particularly shows this.
If we now don’t count empty motion sets, we get these curves:
We see that the motion would have passed over a longer period of time. Furthermore the rates are more stable and the CDD model is much closer to the count model.
Now, as mentioned above there might be staking clients which only contain some ancient motions in their voting set, but don’t actively participate in the voting anymore. So let’s have a closer look at the non-empty votes: We consider a set of motion as valid, iff the set is non-empty and either contains a motion that has not passed yet or has at least one motion that passed within the last N blocks. So all votes which only contain motions that already passed N blocks ago will be discarded. If we now plot the count voting rate at block 215104 for different N we get:
Several things are interesting in this graph. First, if we would require at least one active motion in the voting set, then the motion would have 37.20%. Secondly, after many NSR switched hands around block 190k we can see that many new votes (with low CDD) come in and this influx can be observed at the same location here (note that the x axis in this graph is reversed compared to the other graphs).
Now, if we say that active shareholders will add a motion within N = 50,000 blocks, which corresponds to about 5 weeks, then we arrive at this voting:
So here the motion would have been passed even more clearly. Interestingly the curves are very similar to the graph that only discards empty vote sets, and there only appears to be a vertical shift, i.e. a constant down vote pressure, that makes the difference in these curves. After block 190k, and CDD reduction, this offset is much smaller.
Let’s now consider the currently highly discussed open-source motion. This motion behaves quite different than the older PPC motion, but here also the empty votes seem to have a significant weight:
In total discarding empty votes here increased the rate from 26.66% (at block 215104) to 30.6%. The additionoal filtering based on the expired motions only had a small effect for 50k blocks, increasing the rate only to 30.65%. A possible explanation is that new shareholders are more in favor with this motion than older shareholders.
I hope you enjoyed reading the plots and I am looking forward to reading what you think.
EDIT: sorry that I took the previous version down, I had to correct/add some elements.