Supply, Reserves, and Equilibrium (superseded by automation)

[Nagalim]

For the record, if park rates kick in for 30 days we are forced to do an nsr sale by motion. I would guess that flot signers would respond to the letter of the nsr sale motion with consensus.

[masterOfDisaster]

Right, but what if NSR holders don’t vote for park rates and the reserves go down further?

[Nagalim]

Sure, I totally agree the current model has a rather large gap. However, shareholders would be stupid to allow that to happen. Hear that? Stupid to avoid using the park rate and nsr sale mechanisms we currently have! If FLOT BTC reserve comes up dry we will lose all confidence at this point. Hell, i would lose confidence.

If we’re in trouble, we still have NuSafe. We have some time yet before the apocalypse for sure.

[masterOfDisaster]

And next to the remaining BTC reserves we have NuSafe, right, and we have the FLOT NSR team holding 25,000,000 NSR.
There’s a lot of buffer left, before the first NSR need to be granted by NSR holders.

[mhps]

This week’s caculation results

Nushares buyback calculation as of Sat Apr 16 10:09:00 UTC 2016
"blocks" : 833609,
Total NBT = 1290846.4629

FSRT multisig
Balance of BhCnQrYrA5LZm871dtMQEXeU93gmqbhdrC is 0 NBT
FSRT singlesig
Balance of BFTnCyMX1nsTNp6X7Bcm1qVocvShdbwtMi is 151500 NBT
JordanLee singlesig
Balance of B5Zi5XJ1sgS6mWGu7bWJqGVnuXwiMXi7qj is 150000 NBT
JordanLee singlesig from liquidity ops
Balance of BT9AWq9r1i6kghZc6LtrvNb2wRFh7JLCdP is 36553.054 NBT
FLOT 3-of-5 multisig
Balance of BqyRzFtWXDmjxrYpyJD42MLE5xc8FrB4js is 154465.5226 NBT

Total NBT in circulation is 798327.886300 NBT.

Tier 4 Funds

Tier 4 buy side funds controlled by FLOT
FLOT 5-of-8 multisig old
Balance of 3QDWJ2yqJ5iTUg6cSpAwxx95ba3NG97hzG is 0 BTC
FLOT 5-of-8 multisig new
Balance of 3HikFkS2Zinab1TJq7dqp6wSPyLu7i7bhe is 130.67317541 BTC
Tier 4 buy side funds controlled by JordanLee 59.8 BTC
NuSafe has $30000 for T4, but not included for buyback calculation.
FLOT 3-of-5 multisig Peercoin
Balance of pM68K72BBa2KX7Kj2qY5jgTB3AmCUKFQmV is 0.89 PPC

bitfinex BTC mid price is 434.52 USD
btc-e PPC average price is 0.00102 BTC

Tier 4 buy side funds total 190.473175 BTC, 0.890000 PPC, and $30000.000000, valued $112764.798636 (259.515784 BTC)

Of the 798327.886300 NBT in circulation, 15.00 percent (119749.182945 NBT) plus NuSafe are reserved and excluded from the share buyback calculation (344.631278 BTC).

259.515784 - 344.631278 = -85.115494 BTC in the share buyback pool.
The Standard is 5.00 percent of this, -4.2558 BTC (~ -1849.22 USD)

Pool is not positive. There will be no NSR buyback or PPC reserve filling next week.

[mhps]

Nushares buyback calculation as of Fri Apr 22 23:50:26 UTC 2016
Total NBT = 1292031.8213

Uncirculating Nubits

• FSRT multisig
  Balance of BhCnQrYrA5LZm871dtMQEXeU93gmqbhdrC is 0 NBT
• FSRT singlesig
  Balance of BFTnCyMX1nsTNp6X7Bcm1qVocvShdbwtMi is 151500 NBT
• JordanLee singlesig
  Balance of B5Zi5XJ1sgS6mWGu7bWJqGVnuXwiMXi7qj is 150000 NBT
• JordanLee singlesig from liquidity ops
  Balance of BT9AWq9r1i6kghZc6LtrvNb2wRFh7JLCdP is 36553.054 NBT
• FLOT 3-of-5 multisig
  Balance of BqyRzFtWXDmjxrYpyJD42MLE5xc8FrB4js is 195016.7956 NBT

Total NBT in circulation is 758961.971700 NBT.

Tier 4 Funds

• Tier 4 buy side funds controlled by FLOT
• FLOT 5-of-8 multisig old
  Balance of 3QDWJ2yqJ5iTUg6cSpAwxx95ba3NG97hzG is 0 BTC
• FLOT 5-of-8 multisig new
  Balance of 3HikFkS2Zinab1TJq7dqp6wSPyLu7i7bhe is 13.20237541 BTC
• Tier 4 buy side funds controlled by JordanLee 59.8 BTC
• NuSafe has $30000 for T4, but not included for buyback pool calculation.
• FLOT 3-of-5 multisig Peercoin
  Balance of pM68K72BBa2KX7Kj2qY5jgTB3AmCUKFQmV is 0.89 PPC

bitfinex BTC mid price is 447.785 USD
btc-e PPC average price is 0.00094 BTC

Tier 4 buy side funds total 73.002375 BTC, 0.890000 PPC, and $30000.000000, valued $62689.743290 (139.999650 BTC)

Of the 758961.971700 NBT in circulation, 15.00 percent (113844.295755 NBT) plus NuSafe are reserved and excluded from the share buyback calculation (321.235182 BTC).

139.999650 - 321.235182 = -181.235531 BTC in the share buyback pool.
The Standard is 5.00 percent of this, -9.0618 BTC (~ -4057.73 USD)

Buyback pool is not positive. There will be no NSR buyback or PPC reserve filling next week.

[mhps]

Totalparked nubits should be excluded in nubits in circulation for NSr buyback calculation.

What do people think?

[Nagalim]

Yes, i guess i thought they were already taken out of the getinfo reply, but i suppose they arent. So yah, i think parked should be excluded. We could try to exclude only those nbt that will not be unparked during the coming week, but that may be tough to calculate.

[masterOfDisaster]

The point of parking NBT is removing them from circulation - if only temporarily.
I see some potential problems with a vast amount of NBT being parked (can you park at 0%?), which could in edge cases lead to NSR buybacks, because the amount of circulating NBT is reduced big time.
It’s quite hypothetical, but not impossible and maybe a vector to game the system.
I have no simple answer to this question.
Even parked NBT are a (future) liability for Nu. Maybe they should no be excluded from the NBT in circulation…

[mhps]

Yes, i guess i thought they were already taken out of the getinfo reply, but i suppose they arent.

money supply the week before was 1290846.4629
money supply last week was 1292031.8213
currently it is 1297114.8532

The couple of k nbt are grants. The $60k+ parked are not counted in.

Even parked NBT are a (future) liability for Nu. Maybe they should no be excluded from the NBT in circulation

We are calculating buyback for the next week. ideally the calculator should ignore the nubits to be unparked next week. but currently assuming all will still be parked is more accurate.

[masterOfDisaster]

We are calculating buyback for the next week.

All I’m saying is that this can lead to oscillating effects, if very big amounts of NBT are parked with a buyback one week and a sale the other week (after the NBT unparked) - once this motion passes: [Passed] Standard and Core

After thinking twice I’m inclined to ignore the parked NBT and consider them as “in circulation” although they temporarily aren’t.
Parking is dealing with a short term lack of demand for NBT. That should never be able to lead to a NSR buyback, because those NBT are removed from the calculation for a short period of time.

[mhps]

That should never be able to lead to a NSR buyback, because those NBT are removed from the calculation for a short period of time.

That is guessing the intention of the shareholders. I am a bit worried that the calculator has this logic built-in. But I suppose you are right.

[cryptog]

I agree with you. I do not think that parked nubits should be regarded as a real supply decrease for very short periods. But we could remove from circulation say half of the total supply (350000) for 1y at 0.1% interest rate. Then we would really need to issue new nubits which would lead to plenty of buy backs. Also, that would trigger buyback immediately.
And overall that would be sensible.

[masterOfDisaster]

Can you find out for what total duration NBT are being parked?

[mhps]

v0.8.2 show totalparked nbt but do not use in calculation. add nud else case.

---

Nushares buyback calculation as of Sat Apr 30 01:02:00 UTC 2016
Total NBT = 1297114.6332

Uncirculating Nubits

• FSRT multisig
  Balance of BhCnQrYrA5LZm871dtMQEXeU93gmqbhdrC is 0 NBT
• FSRT singlesig
  Balance of BFTnCyMX1nsTNp6X7Bcm1qVocvShdbwtMi is 151500 NBT
• JordanLee singlesig
  Balance of B5Zi5XJ1sgS6mWGu7bWJqGVnuXwiMXi7qj is 150000 NBT
• JordanLee singlesig from liquidity ops
  Balance of BT9AWq9r1i6kghZc6LtrvNb2wRFh7JLCdP is 36553.054 NBT
• FLOT 3-of-5 multisig
  Balance of BqyRzFtWXDmjxrYpyJD42MLE5xc8FrB4js is 219870.7656 NBT
• Total parked Nubits is 64483.2155. They are not used in circulating nubits calculation for buyback purposes.

Total NBT in circulation is 739190.813600 NBT.

Tier 4 Funds

• Tier 4 buy side funds controlled by FLOT
• FLOT 5-of-8 multisig old
  Balance of 3QDWJ2yqJ5iTUg6cSpAwxx95ba3NG97hzG is 0 BTC
• FLOT 5-of-8 multisig new
  Balance of 3HikFkS2Zinab1TJq7dqp6wSPyLu7i7bhe is 41.28271541 BTC
• Tier 4 buy side funds controlled by JordanLee 59.8 BTC
• NuSafe has $30000 for T4, but not included for buyback pool calculation.
• FLOT 3-of-5 multisig Peercoin
  Balance of pM68K72BBa2KX7Kj2qY5jgTB3AmCUKFQmV is 0 PPC

bitfinex BTC mid price is 454.985 USD
btc-e PPC average price is 0.000985 BTC

Tier 4 buy side funds total 101.082715 BTC, 0.000000 PPC, and $30000.000000, valued $75991.119271 (167.018955 BTC)

Of the 739190.813600 NBT in circulation, 15.00 percent (110878.622040 NBT) plus NuSafe are reserved and excluded from the share buyback calculation (309.633553 BTC).

167.018955 - 309.633553 = -142.614598 BTC in the share buyback pool.
The Standard is 5.00 percent of this, -7.1307 BTC (~ -3244.38 USD)

Buyback pool is not positive. There will be no NSR buyback or PPC reserve filling next week.

[mhps]

Can you find out for what total duration NBT are being parked?

It must be possible. I will be in transit in the next 1.5 days.

[Nagalim]

To trigger a buyback then a dilution, the parked nbt would need to change by 700k to force the standard to go from +2.5k to -2.5k (5k/0.05/0.15=666k). Also, the park rates go down as the standard approaches +2.5k (at least in theory), so this attacker is parking for smaller and smaller rewards. Their best attack would be to wait for Nu to suffer, then park a bunch all at once at a high rate. However, this is precisely what we want them to do! To wait and park when we’re in trouble, they have to buy a bunch of nubits while our economy is going into a recession, thereby helping us out. Well that’s not really an attacker at all!

This is basically the buy slow sell fast (bssf) attack from my perspective. There are more efficient ways of manipulating Nu, namely to target the ALPs.

[JordanLee]

@mhps I now hold a total of 126.04 shareholder BTC. FLOT may request a transfer if they wish.

[mhps]

v 0.8.3

Nushares buyback calculation as of Fri May 6 23:44:37 UTC 2016
blocks":863102
Total NBT = 1317832.0683

Uncirculating Nubits

• FSRT multisig
  Balance of BhCnQrYrA5LZm871dtMQEXeU93gmqbhdrC is 0 NBT
• FSRT singlesig
  Balance of BFTnCyMX1nsTNp6X7Bcm1qVocvShdbwtMi is 151500 NBT
• JordanLee singlesig
  Balance of B5Zi5XJ1sgS6mWGu7bWJqGVnuXwiMXi7qj is 150000 NBT
• JordanLee singlesig from liquidity ops
  Balance of BT9AWq9r1i6kghZc6LtrvNb2wRFh7JLCdP is 31553.044 NBT
• FLOT 3-of-5 multisig
  Balance of BqyRzFtWXDmjxrYpyJD42MLE5xc8FrB4js is 219870.7656 NBT
• Total parked Nubits is 153010.125. They are not used in circulating nubits calculation for buyback purposes.

Total NBT in circulation is 764908.258700 NBT.

Tier 4 Funds

Tier 4 buy side funds controlled by FLOT

• FLOT 5-of-8 multisig old
  Balance of 3QDWJ2yqJ5iTUg6cSpAwxx95ba3NG97hzG is 0 BTC
• FLOT 5-of-8 multisig new
  Balance of 3HikFkS2Zinab1TJq7dqp6wSPyLu7i7bhe is 52.21291541 BTC
• Tier 4 buy side funds controlled by JordanLee 126.04 BTC
• NuSafe has $30000 for T4, but not included for buyback pool calculation.
• FLOT 3-of-5 multisig Peercoin
  Balance of pM68K72BBa2KX7Kj2qY5jgTB3AmCUKFQmV is 0 PPC

bitfinex BTC mid price is 461.345 USD
btc-e PPC average price is 0.000925 BTC

Tier 4 buy side funds 178.252915 BTC, 0.000000 PPC, and $30000.000000, valued $112236.091260 (243.280173 BTC)

Of the 764908.258700 NBT in circulation, 15.00 percent (114736.238805 NBT) plus NuSafe are reserved and excluded from the share buyback calculation (313.726688 BTC).

243.280173 - 313.726688 = -70.446515 BTC in the share buyback pool.
The Standard is 5.00 percent of this, -3.5223 BTC (~ -1625.01 USD)

Buyback pool is not positive. There will be no NSR buyback or PPC reserve filling next week.

[mhps]

Total parked Nubits is 153010.125

So far there is no information on the distribution of park period for the parked fund.