NuPond

[Nagalim]

The switch will occur at 4pm on sunday. It will simply require LPs to reduce the skew parameter at the bottom of the config file to 0. Alternatively, i will make a github update available nearer to the switch.

This will only affect the NBT/CNY pool.

[mhps]

I appologize to shareholders and LPs alike for being wishy washy like this with the price feed.

What do we learn about cny price?

4pm on sunday

GMT?

[Nagalim]

UTC.

I dont know what we learned, other than that it’s difficult to tell what a rational btc price is on an exhange thats teetering on insolvency like bter is.

[huafei]

can we only consider the fee of CNY and NBT ?

[Nagalim]

That gives the 1.5% skew that we currently have. Empirically, the Bter price has been the same as huobi for the last week. I still think it’s irrational that those prices are the same when the fees are so different, but again it’s really really difficult to tell what is rational on a failing exchange. Remember what happened at Mt. Gox.

[Nagalim]

I swear Bter traders are doing this just to mess with me. Which is actually possibly true since there is money on the line.

So for over a week the price remained on par with huobi. Now that I’m about to fork the feed again, the price is down again to where I think it should be (1-2% under the huobi feed). Now, I do not think it’s profitable to artificially prop up or hold down the Bter price just to mess with my price feed, as my feed only accounts for a couple thousand in liquidity while the BTC trade volume is well over $100k.

For now, the scheduled change of skew to 0% is still on for 4 PM UTC.

[Nagalim]

Ok, I’m going to cite an extremely volatile Bter market today and postpone this transition till a future date, upon further consideration. The price on Bter today has 4% between max and min, while the price on other exchanges has ~1% volatility. The current price is in line with the current price feed, ~1.5% below the OkCoin price feed. An abrupt change of price right now would essentially force all our CNY LPs to buy from the sell walls on BTC/CNY using the NuBot gateways as leverage.

The skew change is postponed/cancelled until further notice. Skew will remain at -1.5% until further consideration.

[mhps]

I swear Bter traders are doing this just to mess with me.

The pool might be gamed because of limited liquidity plus its FC obligations. Someone might set it up so s/he cannot lose.

[Nagalim]

Im responding to the btc/cny pair. With over $250k volume today, at 0.2% per trade that’s $500 spent on fees alone keeping the price where it is ($1k total today for fees). The $14 of the FC and even a few percent wins on $5k liquidity does not compare to the fees being dropped on the BTC/CNY pair.

[mhps]

I was talking about the nbtcny pair. After posting I thought maybe it was because PBOC has been intervening to prop up RMB exchange rate recently. Maybe traders are changing their outlook of RMB as a result.

[Nagalim]

If this were about RMB as a currency it would affect okcoin and bter equally. The ‘skew’ issue is about the price difference between bter and all other cny exchanges. It should have nothing to do with sentiment about the currency itself and everything to do with Bter’s solvency and withdrawal mechanisms and fees.

[Nagalim]

The price has gone back to where it was over the past week, yesterday seemed to be an aberration. I will reschedule the price feed adjustment for 11 PM UTC today April 17th. That’s ~16 hours from now.

[mhps]

If this were about RMB as a currency it would affect okcoin and bter equally.

I don’t know. When the skew was introduced nbtcny price is so high above the official rate it has to be the result of market sentiment of price trend. The depth in nbtcny is so small one trader can set the price and if he changes his mind the equilibium will shift. Now the price just goes back to the offcial rate.

[Nagalim]

One trader cannot set the nbt/cny price without also setting the nbt/btc price. The btc/cny market has much more volume than either of those markets, so if we assume the nbt/btc price is fixed by arbitrage with Polo, and btc/cny is fixed by arbitrage with Bter, the nbt/cny must be fixed. If one trader tries to move the price they will get hit continuously by arbitrage with Bter’s btc/cny and Polo or Nulagoon’s nbt/btc.

[mhps]

I agree with what you said in principle but friction of inter-exchange fund movement and large spread (nbt/btc on bter is 4% now) could allow one to move thr price by ~1% without being hit by arbitraging.

[Nagalim]

OK, skew is set to 0.

Set the skew at the bottom of the CNY pool file to 0, like so:

server:3335=nupond.net
unit=cny
exchange=bter
skew=0

Github is also ready for redownload if you need it: https://github.com/Nagalim/alp-collection

[huafei]

for the 1% withdraw , i only setup sell side order

[Nagalim]

NuPond term 10 has begun. CNY compensation and tolerance has been reduced. If you’re having issues getting credited, try reducing your offset or deviation.

[huafei]

@Nagalim please have a check

 2016/05/04-23:12:51 ERROR: submit: socket error (-3)
2016/05/04-23:13:17 ERROR: submit: socket error (-3)
2016/05/04-23:13:20 ERROR: submit: socket error (-3)

[Nagalim]

I’m sorry, I don’t see anything wrong now or in the logs.